Fixed Income Market Overview
On Friday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose nearly 10 basis points to 4.384% following the release of a key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which met expectations with a 0.1% monthly increase and a 2.6% annual rise—the lowest since March 2021. The 2-year Treasury yield also increased, reaching 4.747%. This data supports the Federal Reserve’s stance of maintaining or potentially raising rates until inflation trends towards their 2% target. Markets are currently anticipating two potential quarter-point rate cuts this year, with the first expected in September. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated openness to further rate hikes if inflation persists.
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Major Indicies
| Symbol | Price | Change | %Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 39,118.86 | -45.20 | -0.12%↓ |
| NASDAQ | 19,682.87 | -106.16 | -0.54%↓ |
| S&P 500 | 5,460.48 | -22.39 | -0.41%↓ |
| NIKKEI | 39,583.08 | 241.54 | 0.61%↑ |
| HSI | 17,718.61 | 2.14 | 0.01%↑ |
| VIX | 12.440 | 0.20 | 1.63%↑ |
Bonds
| Name | Yeild | CHG |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-YR | 4.40% | 0.11 |
| US 30-YR | 4.57% | 0.14 |
| US 5-YR | 4.38% | 0.07 |
| JPN 10-YR | 1.05% | -0.03 |
| UK 10-YR | 4.18% | 0.05 |
Futures & Commodities
| Name | Last | Change | %Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI CRUDE | 81.54 | -0.20 | -0.24%↓ |
| NAT GAS | 2.598 | -0.077 | -2.88%↓ |
| GOLD | 2,339.60 | 3.00 | 0.13%↑ |
| SILVER | 29.56 | 0.30 | 1.04%↑ |
| COPPER | 4.392 | 0.043 | 0.99%↑ |
Equity Market Overview
U.S. stocks dipped on Friday as investors assessed economic data showing slowing inflation and improved consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped 0.41% to 5,460.48, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.71% to 17,732.60, and the Dow Jones decreased by 0.12% to 39,118.86, despite all three indices hitting record intraday highs. May’s core personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.1% monthly and 2.6% annually, aligning with expectations, marking the lowest inflation rate in over three years. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June surpassed expectations at 68.2, with a one-year inflation outlook decreasing to 3%. Investors now predict a 64.1% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The technology-driven Nasdaq surged 18.1% in the first half of 2024, driven by AI investment excitement, while the S&P 500 increased by 14.5%, and the Dow lagged with a 3.8% gain.
