Fixed Income Market Overview
In March, inflation remained persistent, with the Federal Reserve’s closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index showing continued elevated price pressures. Both the index excluding food and energy and the all-items index increased 2.8% and 2.7% respectively from a year ago, surpassing expectations. Despite the data, markets reacted calmly, with slight optimism seen in futures traders. Consumer spending remained resilient, rising 0.8%, while personal income increased 0.5%. However, the personal saving rate fell to 3.2%, indicating households tapping into savings to sustain spending. The Fed, targeting 2% inflation, remains vigilant, particularly as core PCE has exceeded this level for three years. Services prices increased while goods saw minimal movement, reflecting changing consumer behaviors amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
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Major Indicies
| Symbol | Price | Change | %Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 38,239.66 | 153.86 | 0.40%↑ |
| NASDAQ | 17,718.30 | 287.80 | 1.65%↑ |
| SNP 500 | 5,099.96 | 51.54 | 1.02%↑ |
| NIKKEI | 37,934.76 | 306.28 | 0.81%↑ |
| HIS | 17,651.15 | 366.61 | 2.12%↑ |
| VIX | 15.03 | -0.34 | -2.21%↓ |
Bonds
| Name | Yeild | CHG |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-YR | 4.67% | -0.04 |
| US 30-YR | 4.78% | -0.04 |
| US 5-YR | 4.70% | -0.03 |
| JPN 10-YR | 0.93% | 0.03 |
| UK 10-YR | 4.33% | -0.04 |
Futures & Commodities
| Name | Last | Change | %Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI CRUDE | 83.85 | 0.28 | 0.34%↑ |
| NAT GAS | 1.923 | -0.063 | -3.17%↓ |
| GOLD | 2,347.20 | 4.70 | 0.20%↑ |
| SILVER | 27.25 | -0.10 | -0.37%↓ |
| COPPER | 4.574 | 0.035 | 0.78%↑ |
Equity Market Overview
AbbVie
AbbVie reported quarterly earnings of $2.31 per share, beating estimates by 2.21%, with revenues of $12.31 billion, surpassing expectations by 2.65%. The company has exceeded consensus EPS and revenue estimates four times in the last four quarters. Investors are awaiting management’s commentary on the earnings call to gauge future stock movement. AbbVie shares have gained 8% year-to-date. The performance is in line with the market. Pfizer, from the same industry, is expected to report a year-overyear earnings decline of 54.5% with revenues expected to be down 24.2% in its upcoming report.
Exxon Mobil
Exxon Mobil reported first-quarter earnings below expectations due to declining refining margins and natural gas prices. Despite beating revenue forecasts with $83.08 billion, down from $86.56 billion last year, earnings per share were $2.06 compared to an expected $2.20. CEO Darren Woods attributed the miss to noncash and inventory adjustments. Lower natural gas prices and refining margins impacted the oil and gas production profits, falling to $5.67 billion. Exxon’s fuel business earnings dropped 67%, while chemical products segment profits doubled. The company is in a dispute with Chevron over Hess Corp’s acquisition, seeking to confirm its preemption rights.
Natwest
NatWest, a major UK bank, saw a 27% decline in first-quarter profits, attributed to waning benefits from rising interest rates across the industry. Pre-tax operating profit stood at £1.3bn, down from £1.8bn a year earlier, in line with analyst predictions. Revenues dipped to £3.5bn, slightly above market expectations. Net interest margin increased to 2.05% overall but declined to 2.22% in the retail bank due to mortgage market competition. The bank noted stable default levels despite inflationary pressures. NatWest’s shares rose 3% amid plans for government share buyback and implementation of customer account closure recommendations.
